The Iranian regime is a unique capitalist regime that during 17 years has not been able to establish its power completely and is now facing a deeper economic and political crisis. This regime has lost the ability to rule and the toiling and working masses of Iran also do not want to be ruled by such a regime. The closure of universities and student protests against the meddling of the Hezbollah, the Islam-Shahr insurrection and the revolts in various towns and cities in Iran during the last two years and the workers' strikes in the factories of Iran, like the one in Benz-e Khavar Industrial Group, the Islam wood cutting plant in Gilan and so on clearly show this.

 When confronted by these mass protests the regime uses the only possible method, the intimidation and repression of the protesters. Hundreds of young workers in Islam-Shahr have been arrested and dozens have been murdered; many book shops have been set on fire by the Fascist-like groups of Ensar-e Hezbollah. A large number of the strikes' organisers have been arrested or killed. A regime that resorts to such methods is no longer able to govern.

 In this period, the internal political crisis of the regime has increased. In the fake elections of the Fifth Majles (parliament), the "traditional right" clique, calling itself the "Hezbollah Faction", beat the "modern right". The defeat of the "modern right", which is the Rafsanjani wing and contested the election under the name of the "Hezbollah Assembly", brings into question all the previous policies adopted by the Fourth Majles. These skirmishes are bound to continue, and probably intensify, in the run up to next year's presidential election.

 Not only has the regime not been able to take any steps towards remedying the economic problems, but has been backsliding. The regime's debts to international banks and western governments, which were negligible in 1990, has now reached $33 billion. During the next year as much as a quarter of the oil revenue will be dedicated to repaying the debts. To repay the debts imports have been reduced, and trade surplus increased, but the purchase of spare parts and raw materials for factories has suffered and some 30% of factories in Iran are practically at a standstill. Half of last year's oil revenue has been dedicated to subsidising basic foodstuffs. Inflation is estimated as between 40%, according to official figures, and as much as 200% unofficially. The cost of basic foodstuffs increases daily, so that a kilogram of beef, at 10,000 Rials, is equivalent to the average daily wage of a worker!

 Some 30% of the workforce are unemployed, with some sources quoting a figure of 70%. And of those who work, 75% are forced to have more than one job. According to the regime's figures 40% of the population live below the poverty line, with other sources putting this at 60%.

 On top of all this, during the past 17 years the population has doubled - from 34 to 64.7 million, with 70% under 25 years.

 The perspective of the workers' movement

Clearly under such conditions mass protests and insurrections will not only not decrease, but will increase and occur with more frequency. But, unlike some assessments within the "left", this critical situation will not drag the mass movement towards chaos. For example, the panicky policy of "The Black and White Scenario", put forward by the so-called Worker-Communist Party of Iran (WCPI) and occasionally considers the situation in Iran as similar to that of Yugoslavia or Afghanistan, stems from this party's lack of understanding of the political situation in Iran and its lack of confidence in the revolutionary potential of the working class in Iran. According to the WCPI, groups and elements, like the former SAVAK (the Shah's brutal secret police) agents and monarchists, members of the class collaborationist Tudeh party and the Fedaiin Majority, and liberals, will, under such chaotic conditions in Iran, be positioned within the "white camp" (i.e., the revolutionary camp)! The WCPI is therefore engaged in discussions with these elements so that they can prepare for the next revolution!

 Or the Broad Unity of the Supporters of Socialism thesis put forward by Rah-e Kargar, which speaks of a democratic political atmosphere in the next period and wants to create the "labour" front against "capital" together with "all" socialists (and even Muslims). This shows this organisation's right-wing and reformist analysis of the political situation in Iran and the revolutionary nature of the proletarian vanguard in Iran.

 Such "analyses" of the situation in Iran are all far from reality. Iran in neither like Yugoslavia nor like Afghanistan. There is no similarity, nor will there be any, from the standpoint of history, the relative strength of the working class, or the economic basis in any of these countries. In Iranian industry, especially the oil industry, there are workers who have a high political consciousness that has been formed during a long period of struggle. Last year these workers organised hundreds of strikes. These show the revolutionary consciousness of the working class. This situation cannot be compared with Afghanistan (or Yugoslavia). In these countries counter-revolutionary "Communist" parties have over a number of years destroyed all the organisations necessary for the struggle of the working class. As soon as these states fell apart, different Islamic-reactionary (and nationalist) cliques were formed and tried to settle old scores with each other. In Iran no such situation has existed or will exist.

 More importantly, Iran has gone through a revolution involving broad layers of the masses, in which ten million people, more than a quarter of the population, took part. This revolution was not just a spontaneous revolt of the masses. During the 1979 revolution workers' councils were formed, which actually had similarities with the workers' councils in the October revolution in Russia. These experiences have been preserved within the collective memory of the working class. This is the reason why the Iranian workers have been able to organise many strikes during the past period.

 On the other hand, the Iranian bourgeoisie will never tolerate any democratic conditions. Forming a Broad Unity of the Supporters of Socialism is just a utopian and impractical plan. Such a "democratic" regime will not be allowed - even under mass pressure. Therefore, with the start of the revolutionary upsurge, unlike Afghanistan, the working class will be at the head of the mass movement. The working class, on the basis of previous experience and the recent struggles of the young workers, can prevent chaos similar to Afghanistan or Yugoslavia and take a bold leap towards a workers' revolution. The concentration of the Iranian population in cities will be of great help in adopting such a position. In other words, the possibility and material basis for a workers' revolution exists in Iran. Of course this perspective will not necessarily mean a spontaneous workers' (socialist) revolution will take place in Iran. However, such a material basis does not exist in Afghanistan or Yugoslavia. Of course, just the existence of the material basis, without the subjective factor (the revolutionary vanguard party), cannot guarantee the victory of the socialist revolution.

 Those who overlook this fact and present alternative analyses, are under the influence of current world events and are just showing a hasty reaction to what has happened and do not present a concrete analysis of the situation in Iran.

 Despite these analyses, during the period of the deepening of the political crisis, the re-building of workers' councils and local committees by the young is on the agenda. The experience of the early days of the Iran-Iraq war showed how the young in different areas of various cities formed their independent committees. The regime's so-called Revolutionary Guards and committees did not have a decisive role during that period and only later were able to control events. These experiences can be repeated during the next crisis.

 In addition, in Iran we have witnessed the formation of clandestine action committees. These committees have been the backbone of the majority of strikes, protests and revolts during the past period. These committees (or forums) are expanding and have carried out various anti-regime struggles - and will do so in future. It is obvious that during the revolutionary upsurge these bodies that are organised by the youth will have a decisive role in the development and advance of the future revolution.

 

Therefore, on the basis of the experience and role of the working class, especially its vanguard, the most tangible perspective of struggles in Iran is the formation of strike committees from within the clandestine action committees - with the aim of organising the general strike and an armed insurrection for the overthrow of the regime and forming a workers' government.

 Our main tasks

On the basis of this perspective, revolutionary socialists define their tasks for the next period. A revolutionary organisation must in a definite and concentrated way take steps towards contacting the clandestine action committees in order to co-ordinate them for the strike. One of the main tasks of revolutionary socialists in the next period is building workers' socialist cells for contacting the clandestine committees and for preparing the ground for building a vanguard party. Communists must take steps towards the building and expansion of clandestine action committees together with the vanguard of the working class. This is the only way that anyone can have any political credibility within this layer.

 One of the main methods for spreading socialist ideas within the action committees is the publication of a workers' socialist journal. A journal that can familiarise the vanguard of the working class with current political affairs, the issues within the workers' movement, especially issues around the general strike, armed insurrection, workers' government, socialist and democratic demands and the experiences of the international workers' movement, and prepare them for the seizure of power. We, as a part of the workers' socialist movement, will continue these tasks towards a revolutionary vanguard party, as much as we can, around the Kargar-e Socialist (Socialist Worker).

 Our policies while in exile

The policies of revolutionary socialists must also take into account the present situation in Iran and our general political tasks. Forming united actions (united fronts) with other organisations for denouncing the regime and supporting workers' struggles in Iran and Iranian refugees, especially workers and toilers, is one of the main policies outside Iran. But, the criteria for forming long-term united actions with other Iranian organisations are that there is internal democracy within these bodies and that the people involved are active.

 We cannot remain in a united action with groups that do not respect our, and each others', democratic rights or have no intention of practical work.

 One of the most important ways of guaranteeing the continuity of the defence work with other Iranian left-wing groups in exile is close co-operation with left-wing and radical European groups.

 July 1996

Translated from Kargar-e Socialist, No. 36, August 1996.

(Part of M. Razi's opening discussion at IRSL's first conference).